Barclays’ share price has been on a strong downward trend in recent days due to ongoing concerns about the banking sector. The stock is currently trading at 152p, its lowest level since February 2021, and has dropped nearly 30% from its highest point this year. The same trend is seen with Barclays’ ADRs in the US, which are trading at $8.50.

Barclays has underperformed compared to other banks like HSBC, NatWest, Lloyds, and Standard Chartered. As one of the largest banks in Europe, Barclays has a market capitalization of over £25 billion and employs around 85,000 people worldwide. The bank generates revenue through various channels, including personal banking, Barclaycard, and business banking in the UK, which brought in over £6.6 billion in 2021.

Barclays also operates internationally, generating £3.3 billion in revenue from its global markets. Unlike some other UK banks like Lloyds and NatWest, Barclays has a significant corporate and investment banking division, contributing over £13 billion in revenue. This division focuses on global markets (FICC), investment banking, and corporate banking.

Barclays has a long history, including its exit from the African market a few years ago and a notable sale of its iShares unit to BlackRock for $13.5 billion. At the time, the division managed about $300 billion in assets. Today, iShares has helped BlackRock become the world’s largest asset manager, with over $10 trillion in assets.

Several factors have contributed to Barclays’ recent share price decline. Other banks have also seen drops, with the SPDR Bank ETF (KBE) falling by over 6% this year.

Firstly, there are growing concerns about a potential global recession due to the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. Rising energy prices, with oil climbing to over $132 per barrel, are likely to trigger a recession. This could hurt consumer spending, which is a critical driver of the economy and could impact Barclays’ business in key markets.

Secondly, fears of a recession could also limit the ability of central banks like the Bank of England (BOE) and the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Both banks are attempting to manage inflation with rate hikes, but this would be the first time in years that the Fed raises rates during a period of a flat yield curve.

Thirdly, rising concerns about cybersecurity risks are affecting Barclays’ stock. With many Western countries imposing sanctions on Russia, there is a risk that Russia could retaliate with cyberattacks targeting the financial sector.

Lastly, deal-making is expected to slow down this year after a strong performance in 2021. Regulatory barriers are increasing, as seen when Nvidia was forced to abandon its takeover bid of Arm Holdings.

Despite these challenges, many analysts believe Barclays is a better investment compared to other UK banks like Lloyds and NatWest, mainly due to its diversified business model. If one segment, such as lending, underperforms, it is often offset by strong performance in other areas. For instance, during the Covid-19 pandemic, Barclays experienced losses from bad loan provisions, but its trading division helped balance those losses.

It’s also possible that Barclays’ trading business will deliver strong results in the first quarter, despite weakness in the stock market. Additionally, its investment banking division could continue to benefit from deal-making activity.

However, like other UK banks, Barclays is closely linked to the housing market, which has been heating up. Recent data showed a sharp rise in house prices in February, confirmed by Halifax. The concern remains over what might happen if the housing market begins to slow down.

Analysts remain optimistic about Barclays’ share price. For example, Credit Suisse believes the stock could rise to around 205p, while analysts at Royal Bank of Canada, UBS, and Deutsche Bank expect it to climb above 210p. According to Marketbeat, the average target price among analysts is 262p, significantly higher than the current level.

During the Covid-19 pandemic, Barclays, like all UK banks, was forced to suspend dividend payments under a Bank of England directive aimed at helping banks conserve capital. In 2021, Barclays resumed its dividends, initially paying 1 GBX, and later doubling it to 2 GBX. In the most recent quarter, the company announced a dividend of 2.1%, giving it a dividend yield of 2.1%.

The Renko chart shows Barclays’ share price is in a strong bearish trend, remaining below key resistance. It has also fallen below the 20-day and 50-day volume-weighted moving averages (VWMA). Therefore, it’s likely the shares will continue to decline, with bears targeting the next support level at 145p. However, if the stock moves above the key resistance at 170p, this bearish outlook would be invalidated.